How Prediction Markets Reflect the Modern Obsession With Forecasting

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 16:20:00 +0200

In the article 'Oil Up or Down? The Inexorable Rise of Predictions Markets,' Moss and Fog explores how the explosion of information — largely driven by smartphones and social media — has deepened polarization and hardened opinions in contemporary society. This charged atmosphere has fueled the rapid growth of prediction markets, platforms where everyday users can wager on political outcomes, economic trends, and even cultural events. These markets operate similarly to financial trading: participants open positions based on expectations about future occurrences, such as oil prices, election results, or global events. DraftKings, a leading name in fantasy sports and betting, recently launched its own online prediction market, signaling the mainstreaming of this concept beyond traditional finance. The piece underscores that prediction markets provide an opportunity for individuals to go against prevailing sentiment — sometimes profitably — by making informed, unbiased calls about what may