Dmitri Trenin on the Digital Transformation, Attrition, and Geopolitical Shifts in 21st Century Warfare

Sat, 02 May 2026 18:06:00 +0200

In this analysis, prominent Kremlin-linked analyst Dmitri Trenin examines the evolving nature of modern warfare as the world transitions from Western dominance to a multipolar order. Traditional mechanized combat is giving way to digital warfare dominated by drones, AI, robotics, cyber tools, and real-time intelligence integration. Key changes include the rise of FPV drones creating kill zones that force troop dispersion, the devaluation of legacy platforms like tanks, and the erosion of the 'fog of war' due to pervasive surveillance. Conflicts now blur lines between frontlines and deep rear areas, with local wars rapidly regionalizing, as seen in Ukraine and the Middle East escalations involving Iran, Israel, and the US through 2026. Trenin describes an ongoing 'New World War' fought through attrition, infrastructure targeting (energy, pipelines, nuclear sites), economic sanctions, and targeted assassinations. While technology drives precision and autonomy, human armies and high casua