Traders Wager $950 Million on Oil Price Drop Before US-Iran Ceasefire

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 21:39:00 +0200

Investors demonstrated a significant lack of confidence in sustained stability within the volatile oil market by placing a massive $950 million bet on falling oil prices just hours before a ceasefire was announced between the United States and Iran. This substantial wager, executed through the sale of 8,600 lots of Brent and U.S. crude futures, occurred just as President Trump seemingly stepped back from threats of escalating conflict and declared a two-week ceasefire. The move triggered a 15% drop in crude futures, pushing prices below $100 a barrel. This behavior mirrors a similar event on March 23rd, when a $500 million bet preceded a Trump announcement delaying attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, also resulting in a 15% price drop. The increase in trading volume and volatility has been dramatic since the start of the conflict, with daily volumes now exceeding 1 million lots, a record high. This represents a billion barrels of oil being traded daily, a stark contrast to the av