AI Struggles Again to Predict Kentucky Derby Winners

Sun, 03 May 2026 12:48:00 +0200

Despite advances in AI, predictions for the 2026 Kentucky Derby made by Claude and Microsoft Copilot were far from accurate. Both AI systems used statistical analysis, odds, expert picks, and race history to forecast the race outcomes. However, their predictions were mostly wrong. Microsoft Copilot, for instance, chose Further Ado as the winner, but the horse ended up finishing 11th. Similarly, Claude also predicted Further Ado to win, while the eventual winner, Golden Tempo, was projected to place 12th by both systems. The longshot Golden Tempo ended up winning the race at 24-to-1 odds, defying the predictions. While AI has been used for similar tasks in the past, its performance in predicting horse race outcomes has consistently been unreliable in recent years. These repeated failures highlight the limitations of AI when it comes to forecasting events with inherent randomness and uncertainty, such as sporting events.